Blog Watch

Posts Tagged ‘public opinion’

The Future of Reform

Bloggers are trying to figure out what’s next for health overhaul legislation, with little success.

Time’s Kate Pickert thinks there could be “momentum building” to resuscitate the Democrats’ efforts. She looks at President Barack Obama’s comments from a speech in Tampa, Fla. yesterday and says, “Tipping point? No. But is there definite life there? Yes.”

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein says “Rahm Emanuel makes me very pessimistic about health-care reform.” He looks a New York Times article suggesting the administration may wait to do more on a health overhaul bill until after addressing jobs and financial reform. He continues: “Is Emanuel really suggesting that he expects Congress to return to health-care reform in the summer before the election? Forgetting whether there’s political will at that point, there’s no personnel: Everyone is home campaigning.”

Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey has a skeptical take on an interview with Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., who said that Senate Democrats are ready to make a deal using reconciliation: “What’s odd about this is that both Landrieu and Mark Pryor made it sound this morning like the bill was in coma and on the verge of death. Any reason to believe them instead of Kyl? Well, Kyl’s claim could simply be a feint aimed at goosing conservatives into launching a hopefully final salvo against the bill and finishing it off.”

The New Republic’s Jeff Davis gives a detailed explanation of exactly how the Senate would use a budget reconcilation process to keep amending the bill.

Wonk Room’s Igor Volsky notes that Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., may be looking ahead and wants to propose using the jobs bill to keep the increased federal contribution to the states for Medicaid from the stimulus bill.  However, Volksy says, “it’s not clear that Rockefeller’s proposal will garner significant Congressional support.”

However, Heritage’s Margeurite Higgins isn’t sure the bill is dead, saying Obama’s health care “agenda is stalled, but still alive. But there is a huge change.”  Higgins says public support for the Congressional health care bills contiunes to dwindle, looking at a new Kaiser Family Foundation tracking poll from earlier this month.

Friday, January 29th, 2010

Foggy Future for Senate Bill

The Senate voted Saturday night to begin debate on its health overhaul bill, leaving liberal bloggers jittery about the bill’s future while conservatives enumerate the many challenges to come.

politifact war and peaceBut first — Politifact deconstructs an email by Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, where he says the Senate health bill is longer than War and Peace.  Politifact’s take? “So while Hatch is right if you simply count pages, when you use a more accurate comparison — the number of words — War and Peace is actually longer. In other words, he is right by one measurement, but not by the best measurement. So it turns out that Democrats aren’t as wordy as a Russian novelist. Who knew? We find his claim Barely True.”

The New Republic’s Jonthan Cohn surveys the health reform landscape and asks, “Should We Laugh? Cry? Or Both?” He portrays the upcoming weeks as sure to be painful for progressives:

Victories are more likely to come in the form of ground not conceded than ground gained. Every day that legislation doesn’t get worse is a day to cherish.

That may not sound like much to celebrate. But to get a bit of perspective, glance over to the other ideological corner–where the right, and many of its kindred special interests, are going absolutely crazy.

Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey looks at a new Rasmussen poll that finds the lowest level of public support thus far: “The more people see of ObamaCare and the way Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have to force it through Congress, the less they like it.  Rasmussen’s latest survey on the legislation shows support for the bill reaching its nadir, 38%, with an 18-point deficit from public opposition,  which is 56%.  It’s the first time in Rasmussen’s surveys of likely voters that support for Barack Obama’s signature agenda item has dropped below 40%.” Rasmussen consistently found lower levels of public support throughout the debate.

Grace-Marie Turner: “The cost of health care is indeed the top issue, and the American people understand that new taxes never will be enough to pay for Reid’s or Pelosi’s reform plans.”  She offers a list of signs that there is “turbulence ahead” including a new public opinion poll and Senators’ statements before the vote.

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein explains why the vote doesn’t make things eaiser: “During that debate, they will need to call cloture votes in order to amend the bill. After that process is finished, there will be another cloture vote to begin voting on the bill. At this point in the history of the United States Senate, Harry Reid pretty much needs to call a cloture vote before he can sneeze. It’s all cloture votes, all the time. And the fact that Reid won today’s vote doesn’t mean he’ll win tomorrow’s.”

Heritage’s Brian Darling gives an example of how the Senate process could be injected with even more hot political issues: “This process may go in one of two directions. It is possible that Reid uses the amendment process to buy just enough votes to pass the bill through targeted special interest amendments. … Scenario two kicks in if opponents of the bill play hardball. If opposing Senators offer non-germane amendments like the legislation to restore the 2nd Amendment in the District of Columbia or a resolution of disapproval for Attorney General Eric Holder’s decision to try Kahlid Sheik Mohammed in federal courts.”

And Wonk Room’s Igor Volsky made an interesting catch — he finds Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who has pledged to oppose a bill with a public option — in a bit of a bind. Her website says she supports it.

Monday, November 23rd, 2009

Talking Political Strategy

As the health overhaul debate moves forward, several bloggers are pondering political strategies.

Pollster.com’s Brendan Nyhan takes another look at polls following President Obama’s September 9th health care speech and finds there was “a small upward blip after the speech but the series quickly returned to its previous trajectory.” Nyhan concludes, “I’m emphasizing this point because there’s a misperception among journalists that the president can easily move public opinion. As we’ve seen again and again over the years, it’s simply not true, but the lack of followup by the press means that the lesson is never learned.”

Bob Laszewski reemerges after a silent second half of September to pontificate about Democrats’ efforts: “The leadership and the White House will do anything they can to get any bill that qualifies as a breakthrough. If they can get this to within a handful of votes in the House and one or two Senate votes they will drag this thing across the line.”  Laszewski identifies three “converging issues:” Democrats’ desire to pass a bill, low public support and differences between the House and Senate versions that have yet to be ironed out.  He concludes, “Just how will they finally sort-out? That will make for the most fascinating domestic political battle in recent history.”

The New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn lays out the swing vote possiblities among members of the Senate Finance Committee: Democrats Blanche Lincoln, Bill Nelson, Jay Rockefeller and Ron Wyden, and Republican Olympia Snowe.  According to Cohn’s math, Baucus can lose all of the panel’s Republicans plus one Dem, but if another Democrat votes against the bill, one Republican must vote for it.

The American Spectator’s Philip Klein, jumping off a Wall Street Journal article, envisions a new White House strategy building off on attacks from conservatives: “So as Obama enters the stage of the health care debate in which he’ll have to find a way to talk liberals into accepting less, his best ally may be his critics on the right. One can see a White House pitch to liberals that more or less amounts to, a loss on health care means victory for Joe Wilson, Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh.”

Lastly, Matthew Yglesias, traveling in Sweden, visited a museum that had an exhibit on pre-modern health care.  The experience led him to mull over what a health reform debate would look like in 1500, and Yglesias wonders if things would actually be so different:

But whatever elements of human psychology—some combination of wishful thinking plus Robin Hanson’s point that we spend on health care for relatives not only because we care but also to show we care—created a viable market in non-cures are still with us. And that’s got to be an important factor in why it’s hard to design satisfactory health care systems. It’s noteworthy when you compare what different countries do that there’s enormous diversity in policy while the diversity in actual outcomes is hard to find and hard to measure.

Monday, October 5th, 2009

Polls and Pols: September Begins

Congress is back, the Senate Finance Committee appears on the verge of releasing a bill and Obama is set to give a major address Wednesday night.  Fall’s hectic start is providing bloggers with plenty of fodder.

First, a new public opinion poll sets the stage.  Gallup found that Americans are “no less divided on healthcare reform today” than before the start of the tumultuous August recess:

The Plum Line’s Greg Sargent interprets the poll’s result showing that about a quarter of voters remain undecided about whether they want their member of Congress to vote for the Democratic health reform proposals.  Sargent notes:

The persistently high number of undecideds is yet another sign that Obama’s failure to forcefully lay down his bottom line on health care early on may have been a disastrous mistake. On the other hand, it may mean that many want to hear more from the president before making up their minds, perhaps giving Obama a chance to turn things around. It’s another reminder that the stakes of his big speech tomorrow just couldn’t be higher.

Politico’s Glenn Thrush (in a post titled “Not so fired up, not so ready to go”) also comments on the Gallup poll and points out that reform supporters are 20% less likely than opponents to cite their congressperson’s health care vote as a “major factor” for their vote in the 2010 election.  Thrush concludes: “Obama, who used to have the most motivated troops in any battle, seems to be leading the French army, circa June ‘40, intensity-wise, into the reform fight.”

(more…)

Tuesday, September 8th, 2009

Back to the Grind

Lawmakers are headed back to Capitol Hill to resume negotiations on a health overhaul bill. The Washington Post’s Ceci Connolly reports, “All eyes will be on the Senate Finance Committee, which has yet to release a bill but is widely believed to be the only hope for formulating a bipartisan approach.”

But bloggers are lagging a bit behind–perhaps thrown off by the long weekend–and many are still absorbing the rereleased cost estimate ($611.4 billion instead of $1 trillion) of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee bill.

As Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf explains, there is still much to settle before any bill (or the Finance Committee’s) is finalized:

This estimate reflects the major provisions of the legislation but CBO has not yet completed an analysis of all of its effects. Specifically, the agency has not yet estimated the administrative costs to the federal government of implementing the specified policies or the costs of establishing and operating the new insurance exchanges, nor has it taken into account all of the proposal’s likely effects on spending for other federal programs or their potential effects on revenues from corporate taxes.

Wonk Room’s Igor Volsky compiled a chart comparing the new and old cost estimates come from in the HELP bill.

But it looks like an employer mandate is the key issue sparking online contention over the last few days. Heritage’s Con Carroll thinks the penalty to employers for not providing coverage–currently set at $750 per year per full-time employee–is a “job killer.” He says:

In other words, the HELP committee wants to pay for their health care plan in classic “tax-and-spend” liberal fashion: by instituting a crippling new tax on our nation’s businesses. And not just any new tax. A tax directed like a heat seeking missile at job creation: an employer mandate.

Over at the New Republic’s The Treatment, Anthony Wright thinks the $750 penalty may not be enough.  He urges the Senate HELP Committee to follow the House Tri-Committee’s current proposal, which penalizes employers the equivalent of 8% of payroll.  Wright continues:

It’s still less than the average of what employers who do provide coverage contribute now, but it would help working families feel more secure in the coverage they have now, and increase the likelihood of getting decent benefits at their next job. It would level the playing field for employers who do provide coverage, but often have to compete against those who don’t.

HELP Committee members resume their markup tomorrow at 10 a.m.

While lawmakers continue to hammer away in order to reach the perfect number, some sites are checking the public mood.  Last week the Kaiser Family Foundation released the first in a series it’s calling “Data Notes“, which examines the spread in public opinion polling on certain health reform issues. The first is on “Footing the Bill.” (Kaiser Health News is a project of the Foundation.)

In a post titled “Are Americans willing to pay for health reform? It depends how you put it…” Health Populi’s Jane Sarasohn-Kahn notes:

At the end of the day, 3 in 5 Americans think it’s possible to ‘do’ health reform without spending any additional funds. “This feeling that change could come without pain likely makes Americans less likely to back anything with a price tag,” KFF foresees…This unease and concern about job security will bolster the KFF forecast that Americans generally would like health reform to be a zero-sum spend. However, there’s a countervailing reality that may play against this: that job insecurity roughly equals health insurance insecurity.

There’s plenty of time for opinion to move one way or another: yesterday on CBS’s “Face the Nation”, Finance Committee Dem Chuck Schumer, N.Y., set August 8th as a goal to vote a bill out of committee.

Monday, July 6th, 2009