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Posts Tagged ‘baucus’

New Negotiations, Same Objections

New negotiations have begun as lawmakers work to create one bill in the Senate. 

Brian Beutler of TMP DC reports: “what went on behind closed doors will be the focus of a Democratic caucus meeting today, where health care leaders will brief their colleagues on the early stages of negotiations as they merge two competing pieces of health care legislation.”

The New Republic’s Jonathan Chait, referring to Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus as “more Mr. Magoo than Machiavelli” notes: “I’ve been pretty hard on Max Baucus for a while, especially as he spent months and months negotiating fruitlessly while Democratic political capital rotted away. But it’s worth pointing out that his plan, assuming he had one, worked perfectly.”  The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein agrees, but points out where Baucus was truly successful was in keeping conservative Democrats from defecting: 

If you imagine that Max Baucus was given responsibility for keeping conservative Senate Democrats committed to health-care reform (and that’s how his role was often described at the beginning, with Kennedy and then Dodd playing the same role for liberals), it appears he has succeeded. Indeed, if Baucus’s schedule partly led to the long month of August, you also have to give him credit for not losing a single Democrat in its aftermath, and for having the savvy to use the release of his bill and CBO score to change the media’s narrative and refocus the conversation on the advancing legislative process.

But not all reviews are so rose-colored.  James Capretta of the New Atlantis argues, “the plan sponsored by Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus would almost certainly lead to a death spiral in many private health insurance markets.”  Capretta is concerned about adverse selection, or the idea that without a stiff mandate that everyone to purchase insurance, a disproportionate number of unhealthy and more costly individuals will sign up for a plan and affect the risk pool.

Others have concerns about the Democrat’s big picture approach to health care costs. AEI’s Stephen Parente says he’d “find it far more credible that the administration will bend the cost curve down if a CMS administrator had been appointed nearly 9 months post inauguration (a record), and if 70 percent of other CMS posts weren’t vacant (also a record).  Assuming nearly $800 billion spent on Medicare and Medicaid for an annualized 2009, each day past the president’s inauguration, $2.2 billion has been spent (with 55%+ for Medicare alone) without a leader. The civil service running such an endeavor deserve gold stars. Yet, it is inconceivable that an enterprise that is larger than any Fortune 500 firm in terms of cost outlays, let alone the revenues of No. 1 Wal-Mart and No. 2 ExxonMobil combined, is running without a chief.”

Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey takes issue with comments by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who downplayed the savings of tort reform legislation.  Morrissey writes: “The overall savings come to at least $110 billion over that same period, perhaps as high as $135 billion, or about 0.5% of the entire cost of the industry — which may still be a small percentage, but is significant in terms of actual money spent.  It would come to over $1000 per family in the first ten years.”

Bob Laszewski is not happy about the news that Congressional Dems are trying to fix a scheduled reduction in Medicare payments to physicians separate from health overhaul legislation, though the pay cut and its cost were long deemed something that a health reform bill would address. He writes that Democrats are about to try “peeling out one of the biggest components of health care and quickly spending $245 billion to bolster physician fees over the next ten years, doing it separate from the ‘deficit neutral’ health bill, and just adding the $245 billion cost of this to the deficit!”

And last but not least, Insure Blog hosts Health Wonk Review, a biweekly compendium of health policy blogging.  According to host H G Stern, there’s several new faces this week.

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

The Morning After

Before we get to commentary on the political ramifications of the Senate Finance Committee’s vote , something lighter: the New York Times’ David Herszenhorn offers a glimpse into less reported happenings during the bill markup, where committee staff is often summoned to answer questions:

“Thank you, Mr. Schwartz!” [Sen. Ensign] declared.

The exhausted but still chipper staffer looked up at the dais. “My pleasure,” he said. And the entire committee room, including senators, busted up laughing.

“Very civil,” quipped Senator Max Baucus, Democrat of Montana and the committee chairman.

The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder’s “Question of the Day” asks whether Republican Olympia Snowe’s vote means “comprehensive health care reform will pass?”

The New America Foundation’s Len Nichols is keeping (his own) hope alive: “The hope of bipartisan and comprehensive health care legislation lives on today thanks to the vote in the Finance Committee of Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME).  The bill reported out of the Finance Committee is bipartisan.  Not just because it received support from members of both parties, but because you can see both Republican and Democratic values in the solution.”

Charles Murray writes on AEI’s Enterprise Blog that political compromises made the bill “so that it no longer makes any sense in terms of the way real human beings respond to incentives.”

Commentators have spent the last several weeks picking over the committee’s bill but yesterday’s vote clears to way to discuss the next challenge: merging all five bills.

Heritage’s Conn Carroll cautions: “Now all of the other bills will be merged together behind the closed doors. All the bills are fundamentally flawed and will only get worse as the leaders in the House and Senate have to commit to actual details.”

Bob Laszewski is eyeing the next challenge – Senate Majority Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: “The more important effort will be Reid’s. Pelosi’s final product will be more predictable (very liberal) but Reid’s will have to be more practical. Every inch Reid moves away from the more moderate Baucus bill will cause problems.  The big issue is going to be money—just whose taxes are going to get raised to the tune of $500 billion to pay for it.”

But Jeffrey Anderson of Critical Condition thinks “a lingering fact threatens to overshadow all the back-slapping and the toasts:  The Congressional Budget Office projections indicate that, over the next 20 years, the Baucus bill would cost $3.6 trillion and would increase taxes on the American people by $2.3 trillion.”

Wonk Room’s Igor Volsky provides a nice comparison chart and thinks a lack of broader GOP support for a more moderate bill means Democratic leaders should craft a final bill that’s more progressive: “The GOP’s rejection of a bipartisan health care bill that actually reduces the deficit should empower Majority Leader Reid to secure a progressive bill that retains Snowe’s support. After all, Repubicans have indicated that they will not support the proposal. In a statement released today, Republican Majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) asserted this is not real reform. ‘The fact is, this proposal will never come before the Senate.’”

The New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn lists 10 reform items “worth fighting for.”  He begins, “But if it’s hard to imagine a scenario under which health reform falls apart, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario under which health reform turns out to be something that makes reformers wince.”  Cohn says lawmakers should increase subsidies, include some version of a public plan, strengthen exchanges and “stiffen” the individual mandate, among others.

Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

Anticipating The Finance Vote

nyt conversationsThe New York Times is inviting readers to start a conversation as the Senate Finance Commitee finally ends its own — members are scheduled to vote shortly on the committee’s health overhaul bill, the product of months-long negotiations and the last major congressional panel to take up reform.

The only committee member tweeting today is Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, who announces (unsurprisingly) “I will be voting against the Finance Committee health care bill today.”

Commentators are still buzzing about the insurance industry’s unexpected Sunday night report (pdf) saying the committee’s bill would significantly raise premiums.     

The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder reports on the reaction: “Hoping to pop this trial balloon before it expands,  the White House and allies have counterpunched with an alacrity unfamiliar to Democrats. They’re first attacking the industry’s motives, which isn’t surprising. The Senate Finance Committee’s health staff, on the White House’s urging, held an unprecedented background call with more than 50 reporters this afternoon to rebut the report’s substance.”

Politico’s Chris Frates has his own summary of remarks from report author PriceWaterhouseCoopers: “Hey, we weren’t paid to evaluate the effects of the entire bill, but rather a small slice of it.”

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein looks at numbers being floated by the White House compiled by MIT economist Jon Gruber, and says, “Gruber certainly has a lot less incentive to twist the facts than the insurance industry does, and his numbers, at least, are free from any glaring deficiencies.”

And National Journal’s Marilyn Werber-Serafini queries her experts, “How much merit is there [to the report]?” Thoughtful but predictable responses follow from Michael Cannon, John Goodman, Len Nichols and Ron Pollack.

snowe pollMany reports are focused on how Republican Olympia Snowe, Maine, will vote, but The New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn reports that “one Democrat also remains a question mark: Ron Wyden.”  An interview follows.

Cato’s Michael Cannon looks beyond today’s vote and predicts trouble: “The problem that Democrats have faced from Day One is finally coming to a head. The Left and the health care industry both want universal health insurance coverage.  The industry, because universal coverage means massive new government subsidies. The Left, because that’s their religion. But universal coverage is so expensive that Congress can’t get there without taxing Democrats.”

Elsewhere, the Galen Institute has launched a new health reform site, healthreformhub.org that rounds up conservative analyses and opinion.

Tuesday, October 13th, 2009

Still Chewing Over the Baucus Bill

Bloggers just can’t get enough of the Senate Finance Committee health bill…

Bob Laszewski says that “we could be on our way to devastating the health insurance risk pool” with the Baucus bill “all but gutting” fines for not buying insurance, which may result in not enough healthy or young people buying policies to help stabilize the risk.

Cato’s Michael Cannon says a “fail-safe” inserted into the Finance bill that would automatically cut the cost of the bill should it increase the deficit would be ineffective since “automatic spending cuts never work because today’s Congress cannot bind future Congresses.”

Keith Hennessey writes, “numbers matter,” and spotlights “important numbers and economic forces in these bills that are receiving insufficient attention.”

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein points out a key difference between reform in 1994 and 2009: “Health-care reform never came to a vote. No one ever had to vote for it or against it. Nor did it ever face down a filibuster. It collapsed long before any procedural impediments were put in its way. This year, something would have to change very drastically for health-care reform to collapse before a vote. That means the few swing votes are going to have to face the pressure of standing in the way of the Democratic Party’s top priority since the days of Harry Truman.”

The Huffington Post broke a story Thursday afternoon that’s been getting a lot of attention — according to Sam Stein, “Senate Democrats have begun discussions on a compromise approach to health care reform that would establish a robust, national public option for insurance coverage but give individual states the right to opt out of the program.” The New Republic’s Suzy Khimm responds, “the fact that we’ve moved from discussing the viability of having a bill at all to trying to hammer out the details is a promising sign overall.”

On AEI’s Enterprise Blog, Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., says “President Obama has contradicted a number of assurances he gave to the American people,” listing six in particular.

Mother Jones’ Kevin Drum looks at why the U.S. health care system costs so much more than other countries:

We can jabber all we want about incentives and greed and systemic waste, but the bottom line is that if we want to do anything more than nip around the edges, we’d have to pay doctors and nurses less, pay pharmaceutical companies less, pay insurance companies less (or get rid of them entirely), pay hospitals less, and pay device makers less. That’s a lot of very rich and powerful interests who will fight to the death to prevent any serious cost cutting, and it’s why Obama and the Democrats in Congress have largely chosen to buy them off instead.

Friday, October 9th, 2009

The Morning After…

The Senate Finance Committee finally completed its marathon markup of the health overhaul bill late last night and will reconvene next week to vote on the measure. This backdrop has dominated health policy commentary for almost a month, and the reaction from liberals and conseratives has been less than positive (for different reasons, as we’ve documented all week.)

MSNBC’s First Read hypothesizes about the delay until next week’s vote: “And so the lobbying for Senator Olympia Snowe begins again. With the Finance Committee done considering amendments, Chairman Max Baucus decided to wait until next week to hold the final vote. Part of the delay is to get the Congressional Budget Office to re-score this final bill with the marked-up amendments.”

Yesterday the Sunlight Foundation and the Center for Responsive Politics, two orgs dedicated to exposing conficts of interest in politics, released a new study that identifies “contribution clusters” — money flowing from health care lobbyists and industry groups to lawmakers in Congress.  The study examined contributions to all members of the House and Senate.

According to the analysis, Baucus was “one of the biggest beneficiaries of this one-two punch from lobbyists and the interests they represent.” Researchers then compiled the info graphically — see the “wheel of health care contributions” for Baucus, below.  The study rated Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. first in contributions,  Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., second and Baucus third. (H/t, Washington Post’s Capitol Briefing.)

Zachary Cooper, on the Altarum Institute’s blog, wants the Finance Committee example to be instructive: “My hope is that as a result of seeing precisely what conciliation and trepidation look like in print, his proposal will inspire Democrats and willing Republicans alike to become more bold.”

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein discusses an amendment from Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., that would give states major flexibility with reform.  Klein says it appears the amendment may allow states to enact a single-payer system, should they chose,  and continues, “It’s not impossible to imagine a liberal state using the waiver to introduce some mega-public plan that’s a lot stronger than what’s currently on the table and can be used as a demonstration project for other states.”

The American Spectator’s Doug Bandlow is looking beyond the Finance Committee and offers a counter-intuitive take on the aftermath should a health overhaul bill pass: “The common assumption is that it would be devastating for President Barack Obama and the Democrats if they don’t pass something on health care.  But what if they win and pass something that is deeply unpopular?”

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

Public Plan Vote Aftermath: Mostly Dead or Slightly Alive?

On Tuesday the Senate Finance Commitee, the last of the five panels in Congress to consider a health overhaul bill and generally recognized as a proxy to the Senate’s final vote tally, struck down two amendments to include a government health insurance plan (commonly referred to as the “public option”) in its sweeping health bill. 

Although the other four commitee measures currently include a public plan, many commentators identified yesterday’s vote as the key marker of both the fate of a public option and the Democrats’ ability to coalesce around the current proposals to successfully pass a bill.

Philip Klein of the American Spectator predicts a tough road ahead for liberals:

Thus, the whole health care fight may hinge on whether the White House will be able to get liberal lawmakers to drop their demands for a government plan. This is problematic. The reason is that one of the most obvious ways to win over liberals would be to increase the level of subsidies to individuals seeking to purchase health insurance, yet doing so would substantially drive up the cost of legislation. President Obama has boxed himself into a corner on that front by declaring that his plan would cost $900 billion, and by vowing to veto any bill that adds to the deficit.

But some offer a glimmer of hope within the gloom and doom. Katherine Mangu-Ward of Reason tips her hat to The Princess Bride, quoting Miracle Max to illustrate the state of a public option: “It just so happens that your friend here is only MOSTLY dead. There’s a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive.”

The New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn reacts, “This is not the slightest bit surprising. But it’s still frustrating.”  But he sides with the “slightly alive” interpretation of the public plan’s prognosis:

The odds are against enactment, particularly for the Rockefeller amendment. But Schumer’s, which is more or less identical to HELP’s, may be able to get fifty votes. Then it becomes a question of whether moderate Democrats, even those voting against the public option, would break ranks and uphold a filibuster over it–and how much Democratic Party leaders, including the one sitting in the Oval Office, care about the one or two Republican votes they stand to lose over this issue.

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein thinks moderates compromised too much by voting no on the public option amendment and will need to make other concessions before the bill is finished:

Now the moderate bloc will need to extract something else in an eleventh-hour bargain to show that they applied their centrist convictions to the legislation. Baucus makes it sound as though he’s attempting to ensure a deal. But in reality, he’s just depriving the centrists of the ability to make their deal. That means they’ll have to make a different one, and the bill will get worse twice rather than once.

Heritage’s Matt Spalding responds to Democrat Jay Rockefeller’s assertion that Adam Smith would have supported a public option:

But does Rockefeller seriously think Adam Smith’s principles are consistent with the government-run healthcare?  This view depends on the patently false idea that competition would be enhanced by the addition of a new player – the government – in the insurance market. The problem is that government, by definition, isn’t just another economic player, and will always tend to want to control markets for its political purposes. That threatens economic as well as political liberty. (Hmmm . . . isn’t this why we favor free markets in the first place?)

Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey thinks it’s that the amendments were potentially “offered as distraction” from the possibility that a public plan option will be reinserted in conference:

This won’t be the last attempt to attach a public option to the bill, but the rest will probably have as much success.  It’s far more likely to get added into a conference report when both chambers pass their versions of ObamaCare, and it’s just as likely that Rockefeller and Chuck Schumer offered this as a distraction from that effort.

Wonk Room’s Igor Volsky doesn’t disagree, outlining how a public option could reemerge during conference of the House and Senate bills:

Once in conference, negotiators will have to reconcile the Senate bill with its far more progressive House conterpart (which will include some kind of public plan). Should Reid and Pelosi stack the committee with public option advocates like Rockefeller, Schumer, or Schakowsky, the option will live another day — no Democrat would vote against a health care package simply because it includes a public option that attracts some 10 million enrollees. Conversely, if likely conferees Baucus and Conrad feel ‘constrained’ to vote with Republicans, the option will likely die.

At left-leaning supersite Huffington Post, Mike Lux says the public option remains “very much alive,” and continues, “getting 10 votes on this is promising for those of us who believe a public option is essential.”  Another post by main politics reporter Ryan Grim announcing the outcome of the vote has garnered a whopping 18,000 comments.

And of course, there’s tons of chatter on Twitter.

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

Finance Members Keep Baucus’ Frown Upside-down

The Finance Committee remains in the spotlight today as bloggers continue digging into the health reform bill and the politics plaguing its members.

Keith Hennessey, a former Republican staffer, offers a thorough overview of Baucus’ bill, summarizing it, he says, “in a matter similar to what I might have done for my colleagues while working in the White House.” His post is complete with sub-heads such as “substantively meaningless hat-tips for the left and right” and “overlooked political flashpoints.” Hennessey concludes, “I apologize for losing some of my usual objectivity, but I was unable to control myself.  I think this legislation would be disastrous.”

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein interviews moderate Democratic Senator Kent Conrad, and offers a glimpse of the politics behind his proposal to create nonprofit health insurance cooperatives:

I was also struck when I read the chairman’s mark that the co-op option seemed shackled. It couldn’t sell to large employers. It couldn’t set payment rates. The co-ops are not public. But they were being prevented from competing with insurers on a level playing field. It seemed like private insurers were being protected from competition.

I think there are things I would like to see that would make certain co-ops be given the full ability to compete that others are.

So you would like to see those restrictions lifted.

I would.

Why are they there?

Because that came out of the Group of Six discussions.

Wonk Room’s Igor Volksy previews the committee’s upcoming Tuesday debate of a public option.  While the Senate HELP Committee and all three House committees have included public plans in their reform bills, the landscape on Finance is much thornier, with Conrad pushing for nonprofit co-ops and Republican Olympia Snowe offering a “trigger” mechanism.  In a separate post, Volksy describes Democrats Jay Rockefeller and Chuck Schumer’s conference call with reporters yesterday describing their strategy to insert a public plan into the bill. Volsky even provides a sound clip of the Senators’ tough talk, which is punctuated with a prediction about the final outcome of the public plan battle.

Offering a nice illustration of the interplay at work between Conrad, Rockefeller and Schumer, Politico’s Carrie Budoff Brown described a scene at the Capitol yesterday: “And just as Rockefeller launched a takedown of Sen. Kent Conrad’s co-op proposal — mentioning the senator by name — Conrad himself walked into the otherwise empty room, his hand tucked into his pants pocket and a sly grin on his face. ”

John Thune of the Health Freedom blog says that the committee is “voting down amendments mostly along party lines.”

And Heritage’s Robert Book singles out the way the bill calculates subsidies for purchasing insurance and argues it “would have another, even stranger effect on hiring. Because the subsidy amount is based on family income and family size, not the wages that the employer pays, employers would naturally prefer to hire workers from higher-income families with fewer children. For example, hiring a single parent could incur a substantially higher tax penalty than hiring a worker with a working spouse or parent(s), or a worker who is single and childless.”

Friday, September 25th, 2009

Markup Preview: What Would Harry Do?

The Senate Finance Committee has begun its markup of the America’s Healthy Future Act,  a hefty task considering the more than 500 amendments submitted by members so far.  And as the Wall Street Journal’s Jacob Goldstein predicts, “from the looks of things, whatever bill finally emerges from the Senate Finance Committee may not bear much resemblance to what Baucus proposed last week.” 

It could be a long day, what with all those opening statemetns.  The New York Times’ Prescriptions blog advises on which of the 23 committee members making ” full-throated use of their allotted five minutes” to watch.  Prescriptions also has a brief interview with Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont.

Time’s Karen Tumulty thinks the committee’s markup is “likely to be more revealing then most.”  According to Tumulty, “On public display will be all of the ideological and philosophical fault lines that have for decades stymied every President and every Congress that have tried to do something about this issue.”  And perhaps a glimpse of the internal debates plauging the “gang of six.” In a later post, she notes “Chairman Max Baucus just warned the committee that he is prepared to work all night.” She promises that she and her Swampland colleagues will be closely following the action.

 The New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn corralled a number of experts to rate health overhaul bills on a “Truman scale,” (a nod to the first President to attempt health care reform).  Cohn says he limited his crop of :WWHD (What Would Harry Do) experts to “people who buy into the basic premise of what Obama and his allies are trying to do.”  Among the judges: David Cutler, Jacob Hacker and Sara Rosenbaum.  The Baucus plan, rated below, scored 6.1

 Conservatives aren’t pleased with the bill: James Capretta on Critical Condition argues that while Democrats hope to “create a sense of irresistible political momentum that will feed on itself,” three provisions in the Finance Committee bill “are on very shaky ground politically” — an individual mandate, reimbursement cuts to insurers for Medicare Advantage plans and a tax on high-cost health insurance.  And Conn Carroll of the Heritage Foundation says the bill imposes new taxes and breaks Obama’s pledge not to raise taxes on the middle class.

It’s also probably a good day to check out Finance Committee members’ twitter feeds: @senatorbunning @JohnCornyn @johnensign @chuckgrassley @orrinhatch @johnkerry @senatormenendez @senbillnelson  @chuckschumer @stabenow

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

More Baucus Buzz

The Baucus buzz continues this morning as bloggers dig deeper into Finance Committee Chairman’s bill released yesterday afternooon.

An editorial from The National Review Online’s takes aim at a Medicare commission in the bill:

Perhaps the worst element of the Baucus package is the Medicare Commission. It would be made up of 15 members and charged with achieving spending cuts beginning in 2014. … But the commission’s mandate limits its range of considerations to provider-payment questions that don’t get to the heart of the problem. There would be no fundamental restructuring of the program to put spending decisions in the hands of consumers. Indeed, if enacted, this commission would provide an excuse for evading the fundamental reform of Medicare that is desperately needed, both to improve health-care quality and to head off fiscal calamity. Instead, it would hasten the march down the price-control road that leads inevitably to government-enforced rationing of health care.

Healthcare Town Hall points out a provision for “young invincibles” plans, and recommends an article by Thomas Snook that notes: “While this concept originates from practical concerns, it also has cost consequences, especially if new rating rules suggested in various healthcare reform bills are enacted.”

While calling the Baucus plan “a major contribution to the health care debate,” Robert Greenstein of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities says the plan “suffers” in two ways: the size of subsidies to purchase coverage and a “free-rider” provision that targets employers.

Others are reviewing the Congressional Budget Office’s score of the Baucus bill.  Reason’s Peter Suderman looks at CBO’s assumptions in calculating that the bill would reduce the deficit by $49 billion over 10 years: “To get the result they did, CBO assumed that cuts in Medicare payment rates, which comprise the bulk of the plan’s alleged savings, will actually happen, even though, as the report admits, Congress has been loath to make those cuts in the past.”

Politico’s Patrick O’Connor says, “No matter what number you use, the price tag of the Baucus bill is at least $100 billion less than the measures the House passed. Even President Obama asked Congress to give him a bill that’s less than $900 billion.”  O’Connor then mulls over whether House leaders should wait to try aand find consensus with Baucus. 

And the Washington Post’s Ezra Klein suggests five ways to improve the bill, which he says “is a very good platform” but “has some serious, even crippling, flaws.”

Elsewhere:

Richard Elmore of Healthcare Technology News hosts the most recent edition of Health Wonk Review, a biweekly compendium of health policy blogging.

Cato’s Michael Cannon posts correspondence from an acquaintance that begins, “I am government bureaucrat…and I just happen to be reviewing cases, albeit involving Medicare and Medicaid, where the government has inserted itself between the patient and the care prescribed by the physician.”

Joanne Kenen of the New Health Dialogue posts a video from Linda Bird Johnson Robb, invoking the ‘unfinished business’ of her father, President Lyndon B. Johnson, to push for health bills

Thursday, September 17th, 2009

Baucus Reax: Tepid at Best

Here’s a selection of blogger’s initial reactions to Finance Chairman Max Baucus’ bill, released earlier this afternoon.

The Congressional Budget Office has released their preliminary analysis, and Director Douglas Elmendorf writes, “According to CBO and JCT’s assessment, enacting the Chairman’s proposal would result in a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $49 billion over the 2010–2019 period.”  However, this is a discrepancy with numbers released from Baucus — Elmendorf explains: “You may notice that CBO’s letter does not contain a figure of $856 billion, which the committee has described as the gross cost of the Chairman’s proposal. As we understand it, the committee staff arrived at that number by adding up essentially all of the positive numbers in the draft tables we provided them earlier. Thus, their use of a different total figure from ours appears to reflect primarily a different method for aggregating the underlying figures rather than different underlying figures.”

These numbers have The New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn bemoaning media headlines.  Cohn says, “In fact, one virtue of the Baucus bill–perhaps its chief virtue–is that it won’t create red ink. On the contrary, projections suggest the combination of savings and revenues will pay for every dime of the program, as President Obama likes to put it, and actually start to generate small surpluses by the time the ten-year window is over. It’s also supposed to save money after that period, actually curbing our medical expenditures.”

The New York Times’ Room For Debate solicited reaction from experts.  Economists Henry Aaron, Dean Baker, Jacob Hacker (widely recognized as the father of the “public plan”) and Michael Tanner, of the Cato Institute have responded so far.

Heritage’s Stuart Butler goes through the bill’s key provisions and concludes, “This is not the way to achieve bipartisan reform. The president needs instead to lead by meeting with key leaders of both parties and seek bipartisan reform around two key themes. Congress must remove legislative obstacles to states so that they can make reforms to health insurance rules and Medicaid to increase coverage. And it must reform the tax treatment of health care in order to provide tax assistance for Americans who have no tax relief for the coverage they want.”

Wonk Room’s Igor Volksy examines how the bill ended up resolving several controversial questions, including: Does the bill include tort reform? How is a Medicaid expansion financed? Will federal dollars be used for abortions? and Can illegal immigrants receive subsides and what are the verification requirements?

The New Atlantis’ James Capretta focuses on the individual mandate and is concerned about the “burden” it could place on workers offered employer-sponsored coverage: “ The whole point of the so-called “firewall” is to prevent these workers from accessing the additional federal assistance for premiums that are only available for coverage offered in the exchanges. That’s how Senator Baucus and other Democrats jam their $2 trillion schemes into $900 billion sacks. Full-time workers have to have insurance, and they really have no choice but to take what’s offered at work. Period. The Baucus plan says these workers will get a ceiling on their premiums too — set at 13 percent of their income. But where would the rest come from? Not from the federal government.”

Matthew Yglesias of Think Progress declares that Baucus got “nothing” from his negotiations and concludes, “In addition to the substantive concessions Baucus made in order to get nothing, it’s worth noting that Baucus made huge procedural concessions in order to get nothing. If he’d just stuck to the schedule, we would have been at this point in the process at a time when Barack Obama’s approval rating was considerably higher.”

Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey thinks starting over is inevitable — he predicts that Democratic lawmakers will “to go back to the drawing board in both chambers.  The longer these versions are on the table, the more unpopular they become.”

And the Washington Post’s Ezra Klein has devoted a number of short posts to different sections of the bill in a generally pessimistic tone.

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009