Blog Watch

Archive for November, 2009

Where’s The Turkey?

The holiday is over and bloggers are bouncing back with health system critiques and ideas to improve it.

Cato’s Tad DeHaven looks at Medicare and Medicaid waste outlined in a GAO report and concludes, “Alas, the Obama administration plans to open another major tributary with its new health care plan. But the administration insists that taxpayers and the economy won’t get swept away by the rising torrent as its plan with actually save money. If this claim sounds ridiculous, it’s because it is ridiculous.”

Health Populi’s Jane Sarasohn-Kahn discusses a Business Roundtable proposal to restructure the health care market through delivery reforms like pay for performance and wellness incentives.

Uwe Reindhardt on the New York Times’ Economix looks at comments by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, that all women should be able to get yearly mammograms. Reinhardt says the senator’s comments illustrate how the United States health care system rations: “But chances are that in a state in which 25 percent of the population is without health insurance, a good many of these Texans are likely to have been forced to choose between spending their own money on these tests or prenatal care and other necessities of life. To paraphrase Senator Hutchison, they were being rationed out of health care.”

Mark Trahant thinks it’s the political system that needs overhaul — he focuses on the senate, saying, “The requirement of fixing health care must be seen in the context of a political system where it’s easier to spend than to save, and easier to borrow than to tax. The current scare over health care rationing makes this point exactly: No one has to give up anything. We can afford the very best, most expensive treatments even when they don’t work.”

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein posts an analysis from Jonathan Gruber — the MIT economist who keeps popping up during the health reform debate. Gruber estimates that without reform, premiums on the individual market will cost 23% more.

Meanwhile, The New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn, who prefers the House bill, finds more flaws in the Senate version: loopholes would possibly exempt many businesses from lifetime benefit caps.

But Critical Condition’s Jeffrey Anderson thinks a round of recent polls spells trouble for reform efforts, and says “It is time to kill this expensive, intrusive, unpopular monster — once and for all.”

Monday, November 30th, 2009

Turkey Day Blog Buffet

A pre-Thanksgiving buffet today This is the last Blog Watch until Monday — have a great Holiday!

Catherine Rampell of the New York Times’ Economix compares a map of obesity rates with a map of Medicare spending (from the Dartmouth Atlas project).  She asks, “How much overlap do you see?”  We’re seeing a lot.

Ezra Klein is on an anti-filibuster kick, devoting three posts yesterday to the topic, including one with a priceless 1964 letter on the Medicare bill.   

Insure Blog’s Mike Feehan looks at polls on health care, including a new one from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and thinks Democratic leaders aren’t listening to the public: “I think these results suggest it’s unlikely that there is in fact some widespread groundswell of public support for the House or Senate health care bills. People just don’t get enthusiastic over nothing or less than nothing. Yet the President, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and their minions all claim they have overwhelming public support. What voices are they listening to?”

Heritage’s Guinevere Nell says, “It is a well known economic policy rule that if you want less of something you tax it, and if you want more of something you subsidize it,” and grouses that there are taxes in the health overhaul bills on medical device makers, over the counter meds, private health insurance plans and “innovative medical companies.”

TPM DC’s Brian Beutler takes a closer look at GOP lawmakers’ claims that the Senate bill actually costs $2.5 trillion, not $849 billion.  According to Beutler, the estimate comes from moving the time-frame of the bills costs to 2014-2024: “this critique elides the fact that, whatever the federal responsibility for health care becomes as a result of this bill, the total package is projected to dramatically reduce the deficit in both the near and long terms.”  Wonk Room’s Igor Volsky has more.

Elsewhere, Health and Human Services has launched a new blog focused on health information technology.  It’s hosted at the Office of the National Coordinator for Health IT, and Director David Blumethal wrote the first post (a generic welcome.)

And many bloggers are still debating controversial new mammography guidelines.  Phyllis Greenberger of Disruptive Women in Health Care says, “Why are women being targeted? I thought this was all about giving women more access to health care, many of the changes in regulations are definitely positive, but what the government gives with one hand, it seems to take away with the other.”   But Adrian Fugh-Berman writes on the Bioethics Forum that “Vague, fact-free, emotionally charged statements are the language of public relations, not scientific discourse. The striking similarities in word choice among these critics could be entirely coincidental,” and looks at potential conflicts of interest among opponents of the new guidelines.

Wednesday, November 25th, 2009

Blog Post Gets Four Stars From The White House

Politico’s Mike Allen reports this morning that the Obama Administration is labelling a blog post from the Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein “required reading.” Brownstein’s thesis: the Senate bill contains plenty of cost control measures. 

A key passage that probably caught the President’s eye: optimism from MIT economist Jonathan Gruber: “They really make the best effort anyone has ever made. Everything is in here….I can’t think of anything I’d do that they are not doing in the bill. You couldn’t have done better than they are doing.”

The only other item like Brownstein’s said to have circulated the West Wing in recent months was from physician and New Yorker staff writer Atul Gawande, and zeroed in on one particularly high-cost town in Texas. 

The New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn thinks these the buzz surrounding these two pieces “is one more signal from the White House that it considers cost control a priority–a message it has been sending privately, during negotiations with Congress and interest groups, from day one.”

Perhaps Brownstein’s piece also held the administration’s attention because he so clearly articulated possible cost-controls in the bill, which have been under attack for months. 

Opponents aren’t backing down, though.  Take Cato’s Michael Cannon, for instance, who has started tweeting the following everyday:

cannon twitter

Cannon’s piece argues that the true cost of the bills are unknown.  He believes, because there is a requirement in the bills that individuals have to buy health insurance, the Congressional Budget Officeshould count the cost of the premiums as part of the cost of the bill.  He says the CBO did that for President Clinton’s bill in 1994 — and it was called “devastating” by then Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala. Cannon says, “So while the CBO estimates that the coverage expansions in the House Democrats’ legislation would trigger about $1 trillion of new federal spending over ten years, the actual cost of those coverage expansions is more like $2.5 trillion.”

Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

Foggy Future for Senate Bill

The Senate voted Saturday night to begin debate on its health overhaul bill, leaving liberal bloggers jittery about the bill’s future while conservatives enumerate the many challenges to come.

politifact war and peaceBut first — Politifact deconstructs an email by Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, where he says the Senate health bill is longer than War and Peace.  Politifact’s take? “So while Hatch is right if you simply count pages, when you use a more accurate comparison — the number of words — War and Peace is actually longer. In other words, he is right by one measurement, but not by the best measurement. So it turns out that Democrats aren’t as wordy as a Russian novelist. Who knew? We find his claim Barely True.”

The New Republic’s Jonthan Cohn surveys the health reform landscape and asks, “Should We Laugh? Cry? Or Both?” He portrays the upcoming weeks as sure to be painful for progressives:

Victories are more likely to come in the form of ground not conceded than ground gained. Every day that legislation doesn’t get worse is a day to cherish.

That may not sound like much to celebrate. But to get a bit of perspective, glance over to the other ideological corner–where the right, and many of its kindred special interests, are going absolutely crazy.

Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey looks at a new Rasmussen poll that finds the lowest level of public support thus far: “The more people see of ObamaCare and the way Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have to force it through Congress, the less they like it.  Rasmussen’s latest survey on the legislation shows support for the bill reaching its nadir, 38%, with an 18-point deficit from public opposition,  which is 56%.  It’s the first time in Rasmussen’s surveys of likely voters that support for Barack Obama’s signature agenda item has dropped below 40%.” Rasmussen consistently found lower levels of public support throughout the debate.

Grace-Marie Turner: “The cost of health care is indeed the top issue, and the American people understand that new taxes never will be enough to pay for Reid’s or Pelosi’s reform plans.”  She offers a list of signs that there is “turbulence ahead” including a new public opinion poll and Senators’ statements before the vote.

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein explains why the vote doesn’t make things eaiser: “During that debate, they will need to call cloture votes in order to amend the bill. After that process is finished, there will be another cloture vote to begin voting on the bill. At this point in the history of the United States Senate, Harry Reid pretty much needs to call a cloture vote before he can sneeze. It’s all cloture votes, all the time. And the fact that Reid won today’s vote doesn’t mean he’ll win tomorrow’s.”

Heritage’s Brian Darling gives an example of how the Senate process could be injected with even more hot political issues: “This process may go in one of two directions. It is possible that Reid uses the amendment process to buy just enough votes to pass the bill through targeted special interest amendments. … Scenario two kicks in if opponents of the bill play hardball. If opposing Senators offer non-germane amendments like the legislation to restore the 2nd Amendment in the District of Columbia or a resolution of disapproval for Attorney General Eric Holder’s decision to try Kahlid Sheik Mohammed in federal courts.”

And Wonk Room’s Igor Volsky made an interesting catch — he finds Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who has pledged to oppose a bill with a public option — in a bit of a bind. Her website says she supports it.

Monday, November 23rd, 2009

New Mammogram Recs Spark Passions Across Spectrum

Although the Senate is poised to hold a key vote to begin debate on its health overhaul bill tomorrow night, bloggers are focused instead on debating the new recommendations from the U.S. Preventative Services Task Force for mammograms and breast self exams.  Commentators are hinting that the new recs could lead to rationing, while others think the public has been poorly informed all along.

Economist Austin Frakt thinks the new recommendations could cause some unintended complications for health practitioners: “My experience suggests that two-year intervals are tricky, and I speculate that behavioral factors could lead to actual intervals that are much longer. … Is it possible that annual screenings are preferable just for behavioral reasons? I think it is at least plausible that the answers are “yes” to both of these. This would seem to be a good topic for behavioral economists. (I know a few…stay tuned.)”

Health journalism booster and critic Gary Schwitzer says people should have been more familiar with the USPSTF, adding “I think journalists have failed badly in explaining this work. …  Since they’re an independent group of experts from across the country, they have no PR machine like the American Cancer Society does. So it’s easy for the ACS to rule the airwaves and the columns when they disagree with something the USPSTF states.”

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein writes, “Suffice to say, you could hardly imagine a better example of why cost control is so hard: This was a recommendation from an institution with no actual power that was based entirely on accepted medical evidence. Cost was not a component in the analysis. This is simply the data on whether mammograms make sense for most women between 40 and 50, not whether they’re “worth” doing as opposed to other expenditures.”

Hot Air’s Allah Pundit isn’t convinced by arguments that the USPSTF is small and its recommendations are optional and not connected at all to cost: “Beyond that, though, even if the panel’s role is small now, why would anyone trust the feds not to expand it over time as rationing became more urgent to limit costs? Everyone understands that the [health overhaul] program will end up costing vastly more than the early projections indicate; there’s no reason to think that inertia towards growth wouldn’t also apply to agency responsibilities.”

Critical Condition’s Hans Kuttner looks at what the Secretary of Health and Human Services would do with recommendations like this under the House health bill:

The HHS secretary can decide to cover something that is not recommended (e.g., routine mammography for women ages 40 to 49), but she could not decide to take away coverage of something the task force recommended. (Senator Reid’s plan is similar.)

The much more important point is that the HHS secretary would have plenary power to decide what helath insurance must cover. Not just preventive services, but all services. That is the essence of political health insurance and what distinguishes the system of private health insurance we have now from a system of political health insurance.

Heritage’s Edmund Haislmaier agrees, saying that giving more force to these types of recommendations could reshape the system so that the “eventual result will be that the only medical care paid for through private health insurance will be the specific, items and services required by federal regulations promulgated by HHS. At that point, Congress will have effectively nationalized the entire American health insurance system under the supervision of the Secretary of HHS — regardless of whether or not it also sets up yet another government health insurance program in the process.”

Time’s Karen Tumulty reacts to the panels’ recommendation that women not do their own breast self exams, acknowledging her own history with breast cancer scares:

So it would seem I’m the perfect example of a person who shouldn’t have had mammograms, or even examined my own breasts. But am I sorry I’ve had the information I’ve had through mammograms and self-exams? Not for a second.

That’s why I think these scientists are pinheads. Pink ribbons are lovely, but women who want information should have it. And I would remind Swampland readers of the important lesson we all learned from Carly Fiorina. Information is power, ladies, and don’t let some scientific panel tell you it isn’t.

And with new recommendations calling for fewer pap smears out today from the The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, the furor is likely to continue.  NPR’s Scott Hensley asks about the timing of the two reports as the Senate readies to take up its health bill:

“It’s just pure coincidence that these guidelines have been released now,” Dr. David Soper, the Chairman of ACOG’s Gynecology Practice Bulletin Committee, told NPR.

They new guideline has been in the works for years and reflects evolving scientific evidence that shows, for instance, the risks of cervical cancer developing in young women is quite low. Indeed, the vast majority of abnormalities found on Pap tests in very young women clear up on their own.

Friday, November 20th, 2009

Reaction to Senate Bill

The Senate finally released its merged health overhaul bill, sending the blogosphere a specific document to pour over.

The action took off when Democratic staffers announced the Congressional Budget Office’s assessment: $849 billion over ten years, a federal deficit reduction of $127 billion, and coverage for an additional 31 million Americans. Director Douglas Elmendorf offers a brief overview on his blog and is careful to note the uncertainties in some of the estimates.

Here’s what various folks are saying:

Hot Air’s Allah Pundit is very unimpressed, and argues that a CBO score matters only “when it’s bad:”

Another week, another “scoring” of a bill that (a) looks nothing like what it’ll look like in its final form and (b) almost certainly has been crafted to hide certain key costs (a la “doctor fix” in the House bill) to improve its “score.” Realistically, the only time a CBO score matters is when it’s bad: Were this to come in at over $900 billion or be judged a deficit-buster over the long term, it would be rejected for failing to meet the White House’s baseline demands. But this one just makes the cut, so look for the obligatory back-pat in this weekend’s presidential message about it being a “fine starting point” or an “encouraging beginning” or whatever. Reid managed to come up with a bill that isn’t too expensive … for Barack Obama. Congratulations.

The New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn compares the Senate’s offering with the House-passed bill.  Cohn seems cautiously optimistic, although he admits it’s “worse than the House:”

But, again, the Senate was never going to pass the House bill. Realistically, the question going forward was whether Majority Leader Harry Reid was going to be able to improve what came out of the Senate Finance Committee–and move it closer to what the Senate Health, Educaiton, Labor, and Pensions Committee produced. And there it seems pretty clear that he did, mostly. The early consensus among experts (and, again, this is pending further analysis) is that the new Senate bill boosts financial support for people purchasing health insurance. And, of course, it has a public insurance plan.

It’s not huge progress. But given the political pull to the right from conservative Democrats and independent Joe Lieberman, any progress is an accomplishment. And Reid clearly deserves credit for that.

The Washington Monthly’s Steve Benen thinks some Democratic holdouts should be satisfied: “it’s worth taking a moment to remember that center-right Democrats, who’ve been complaining about this initiative all year, have very little to complain about right now. Indeed, they should be thrilled — Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has put together a reform package custom made to give the so-called “moderates” just about everything they said they wanted.”

Jacob Goldstein of the WSJ’s Health Blog lists the key tax provisions in the Senate bill, which include a tax on high-end health insurance plans and an increase in the payroll tax for high-income earners.

Insure Blog’s Henry Stern is nonplussed with the bill’s estimated savings: “That bears repeating: if (and that’s a big if) it really meets expectations, Sen Reid’s baby will cut, over 10 years, the equivalent of one month’s deficit. Color me underwhelmed.” (Italics/bold Stern’s).

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein disagrees, looking at the bill’s cost provisions in the three decades following its passage.  “In the second decade, however, …savings from Medicare and Medicaid, paired with the excise tax (which CBO says “is effectively a reduction in the existing tax expenditure for health insurance premiums”) and a handful of other changes, leaves the government spending no more on health care than it otherwise planned to. That’s impressive stuff. And it implies, of course, that in the third decade, the federal commitment actually goes down relative to expectation. The curve, as they say, is bent.”  Klein goes on to argue that getting these cost controls in the bill was part of a “grand bargain” that would not have passed without coverage expansions.

Critical Condition’s Kathryn Jean Lopez posts a message from the National Right to Life Committee on the bill’s abortion provisions.  The anti abortion group says: “Regrettably but predictably, Reid rejected the bipartisan Stupak-Pitts language.  Instead, Reid has sought to please the militant minority that demands funding of abortion through federal programs, even though substantial majorities of Americans believe that abortion should be excluded from government-funded and government-sponsored health programs.”

Amy Allina of Raising Women’s Voices takes a look at the abortion provisions from the other side of the issue:

Senator Reid rejected the calls of antichoice activists to add the House-passed ban on abortion coverage in the exchange.  For the most part, the Senate bill confirms current law on access to abortion, as the Senate Finance bill did.  To respond to the concerns of antichoice Democrats, Reid’s bill spells out more specific accounting guidelines for the segregation of public and private funds to ensure that no federal money would be used to pay for abortion care.  It would allow insurers to offer abortion coverage to women in the exchange, including women who choose the public option if the Secretary of HHS ensures that federal money is not being used to pay for the services.  It also confirms that states would be allowed to pay for abortion services on their own, if the federal government decided not to include them in the public option.

Wonk Room’s Igor Volsky made a table comparing the House and Senate bills, saying, “The merged Senate legislation has lower affordability standards, covers less people, invests less in prevention, does not require all large employers to provide health insurance, and includes a weaker public option. But the bill goes further in controlling health care spending and reducing the deficit.”

And you can always follow the action on Twitter.  A selection of this morning’s many thousands of tweets below.

tweets

Thursday, November 19th, 2009

Senate CBO Score Expected This Afternoon

http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/Cartoons/Senate.aspx

Citizens of the blogosphere are twiddling  their  thumbs waiting for the Congressional Budget Office to release a final score of the Senate health overhaul bill, which many expect when Majority Leader Reid meets with the Democratic Caucus at 5 p.m. today.  In the meantime, many can’t resist guessing the outcome.

Perhaps in preparation for today’s release, Former Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., sent a letter to Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader Reid and President Obama. Gingrich and his 50 cosigners ask the Democratic leaders to “slow down…open up…don’t break the bank.” Critical Condition’s Tevi Troy has the letter (pdf), saying “it’s worth a read.”

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein says, contrary to claims from some Republicans that they will repeal a health reform bill if elected in 2012, “There’s just not much precedent for changes in partisan power ending in the repeal of large pieces of recently passed legislation. In part, that’s due to the nature of the Senate: Repeal requires 60 votes as surely as passage.”

Wonk Room’s Igor Volksy (who includes a shot of Reid praying) rounds up the latest rumors on how the Senate may rush to pass the bill:

Democrats are also indicating that they may “short-circuit the legislative process” to pass health care reform by December 18th, the last day Congress is in session. “The most talked about method is end running the formal conference committee process in favor of some sort of mini-conference. Democratic officials in the White House and Congress are envisioning an end game similar to the way the $787 billion stimulus package came together with congressional leaders and White House aides hashing out the differences behind closed doors.”

The New Republic’s Suzy Khimm reports on another piece of the soon-to-come bill.  According to Khimm, “Amid all the concern about subsidy levels in health care reform comes word that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is, in fact, going to boost the financial assistance available to Americans buying health insurance. The problem? It’s not the group who needs help the most–and it may come at the expense of those who do.”  Reid is expected to lower the maximum percent of income for middle-income earners and raises the percent of income spent on insurance for low-income earners.

Commentators on the right are likely to have their frustration piqued even more — Heritage’s Brian Darling explains objections to even beginning debate:  “The bottom line is that Senators will be voting to proceed to a bill on Friday that they have yet to see and will have little time to read before the first critical vote. Sadly, the secretive procedure used to roll out this legislation has severely restricted the rights of Americans to participate in this process.”

And in other news, Conservative columnist Ross Douthat uses his new blog on the New York Times’ site (where his column runs) to put in his two cents on the health bills: “That means that 10 years and hundreds of billions into health care reform, two-thirds of the uninsured will have coverage — but the remainder, 18 million strong, will be paying more and getting exactly nothing in return. We’ll be effectively taxing a third of the uninsured to cover the rest. Liberals, of course, will say this just proves that we just need to spend billions more on subsidies. But I say that it makes Tyler Cowen’s alternative approach seem vastly more attractive.”

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

Waiting On The Senate

The background noise is loud this week as commentators wait for the Senate’s next move, and a handful of new voices toss in their two cents.

Libertarian economist Tyler Cowen is offering a 14 piece “recipe” of alternatives to the current Democratic legislation.  Cowen says “They’re my ‘attempt to work with some of the same moving pieces which are currently on the table’ set of reforms,” and includes: federalizing Medicaid (currently a state/federal program), boost subsidies to medical R&D, expand “retail” clinics and “Make an all-out attempt, comparable to the moon landing effort if need be, to introduce price transparency for medical services.”

Academic Kenneth Thorpe writes on Huffington Post that stopping obesity should be “at the top of the agenda.”  Thorpe, who’s been beating the chronic disease drum for awhile, points to a new study that finds 43% of the U.S. population will be consider obese by 2018.

The Atlantic’s Philip K. Howard has a piece urging greater emphasis on eliminating medical waste and enacting liability reform.  He includes a cool graphic breaking down waste:

Joe Flower on the Health Care Blog thinks a new perspective is in order to encourage health insurers to spend more time on the long-term health of their enrollees:

Why aren’t health plans more aggressive in promoting the long-term health of their members, like getting them to eat better, stop smoking, get a little exercise, and all that? Because of “churn”  … the industry term for the annual percentage of  members who leave a health plan, and it can be surprisingly high. If each year 20 percent of a health plan’s members go to some other health plan for whatever reason (they move, lose their job, change employers, get Medicare, find a better deal), then it is not worth it for the health plan to invest in their members’ long-term health. If the health plan invests time and effort (which means money) to get you to quit smoking, and you then quit and become someone else’s customer, they lose that investment – and the other company gains, by getting a customer who is less likely to need expensive long-term treatments.  But what if they did not lose that investment? What if your long-term health profile were a corporate asset of your health plan?  

Rachael Larimore of Slate’s Double X says that while no health reform legislation has yet passed, the new recommendations governing mammograms “feels like we’re getting the rationing.” She continues, “The panel’s recommendations aren’t that different from the NHS guidelines in Great Britain, where women over age 50 are “invited” to have a mammogram every three years. That should raise a red flag: Women in the United States are more likely than their British counterparts to be diagnosed with breast cancer, but they are also more likely to survive. If the cancer is caught early, the survival rate in the United States is 97 percent, compared with 78 percent in Britain. That sounds like an argument for maintaining our current standards, not reducing them.”

Dr. Susan Love, breast cancer expert and author, definitely disagrees:

Some breast tumors are so slow growing and are so unlikely to spread that they will never do any harm. Others grow and spread very quickly. The idea that they all can be “caught early” is wishful thinking. In fact screening is best at finding the “good ones” that might even disappear if left alone. Remember the reduced the mortality from mammography is 30% not 100%! If early detection always worked, the number of aggressive cancers we see would have gone down as a result of screening. But as a recent article published in the Journal of the American Medical Association made clear, that’s not what has happened.

The goal of breast cancer screening should be this: to find the cancers that have the potential to kill you, so that an intervention is necessary and can make a difference. We need to stop finding the cancers that will never do anything, and stop over-treating women who have them.

And Chris Fleming of Health Affairs gives an overview of the journal’s new issue, which focuses on HIV/AIDS challenges.  Articles describe both global and domestic hurdles to treatment, prevention and vaccine development.

Tuesday, November 17th, 2009

Another Wrench In Health Overhaul Debate, This Time From CMS

A new Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services report has sparked a renewed wave of attacks and defenses of Democrats’ plans to overhaul the health care system. The report found the House-passed health bill would increase health costs by $289 billion over 10 years and could cause reduced access to services for Medicare beneficiaries.  As the Washington Post’s Ezra Klein says, like much in politics, “What they found depends on who you ask,” though he acknowledges “the report may prove very important in the coming negotiations between the House and the Senate.” 

Heritage’s Conn Carroll says the report “blows the lid off of every one of Obama’s claims” about the health bill, and calls it a “deathblow for Obamacare.” 

Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey writes, “In other words, the warnings about the Canadianization of the American health-care system have proven correct, especially as far as Medicare enrollees are concerned.  We already have a crisis in providers for the government-run network.  Thanks to unrealistic compensation schedules, many providers have stopped taking new Medicare patients, forcing them to fewer providers and into longer waits for care.  The CMMS [sic] study shows that the massive cuts proposed by the Pelosi plan in the House and the Reid plan coming to the Senate floor would — not surprisingly — make a bad situation worse.”

Michelle Malkin reacts, “Ho-hum. Nothing to see here except another massive act of generational theft.”

Reason’s Peter Suderman on CMS’s estimate of the Medicare cuts: “Now, I think we ought to resist the idea that Medicare should be untouchable, and I think Republicans (who ordered the report, presumably expecting to find this outcome) have done themselves a disservice by pushing that notion. But I also think it’s pretty disingenuous to sell a plan based on the idea that you can make massive cuts to the program without substantially altering or reducing benefits in ways that beneficiaries won’t like.”

Meanwhile, over on the left…

Mother Jones’ Kevin Drum argues that the report itself is pessimistic:

What CMS is saying is that the healthcare sector tends to be labor intensive, and thus won’t be able to improve its efficiency as rapidly as the broader economy.  Which might be true. Still, it’s worth noting that this is basically a counsel of despair.  It suggests that controlling the growth of healthcare spending is hopeless, and any attempt to try it won’t work.  We’re just going to have to pay doctors and hospitals as much as they want. I don’t buy that.  It’s plain that eventually we’re going to have to control healthcare spending one way or another, and the sooner we give it a serious try the better.

Wonk Room’s Igor Volksy thinks the report is a “wake-up call to for reformers as much as it is a full and complete rejection of critics who argue that the House bill will undermine the existing health care system.”  He writes, “The report is not without its positives, and lawmakers must accept the bad with the good. If the CMS analysis suggests that reform legislation should adopt robust cost-containment provisions, it also applauds the bill for expanding coverage by building and strengthening the current public/private system.”

Lastly, more from Ezra Klein, who recommends next steps for Democrats:

It seems like the smart path forward is to give these cuts a credible shot, and if they don’t work, either ease the cuts or reform Medicare to save money in other ways, perhaps by going after fee-for-service more aggressively.

But Medicare cuts are a crude tool. The more damning conclusion from the CMS report is that the House bill has little else to control costs, and that’s largely accurate. This report shouldn’t lead reformers to abandon efforts to trim Medicare, but it should convince them that the bill can do more on the cost control front.

The Senate now has the advantage of reading this report, questioning CMS about its methodologies and tweaking its bill to ensure a better verdict. But it’s already part of the way there. The Senate Finance Committee’s bill has two cost-control measures the House … doesn’t: Super MedPac and the excise tax. Alongside that, it has a much more aggressive package of delivery-system reforms.

Monday, November 16th, 2009

Taxing and Saving?

Yesterday we looked at Ezra Klein’s list of ways Democrats could avoid a filibuster, and today abortion rights supporters might see a benefit to using a different way of bypassing the Senate tradition: Politico’s Jonathan Allen reports that “Democrats will almost certainly kill the anti-abortion Stupak amendment in the process if they go to Plan B on passing health care — using a filibuster-proof reconciliation bill — budget experts say.”

There’s been another theme emerging during this recess week besides more back-and-forth over the Stupak amendment: controlling costs and raising taxes. 

Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey is unhappy with a proposal to increase the capital gains tax, saying, “The Pelosi Plan would strangle the economy.”

Wonk Room’s Igor Volsky makes a table that compares increasing the Medicare payroll tax (currently being floated in the Senate) versus the House’s surtax on high income earners.

Robert Laszewski expands on his nod toward an independent commission to look at health care costs. He thinks the fate of a bill “might just hinge more not on how ‘robust’ the public option would be but on how ‘robust’ an entitlement commission would be.”

Perhaps there’s another reason for a commission: Heritage’s Ed Haislmaier is unconvinced that Congress will make the future cuts to Medicare that it is proposing: “Enacting H.R. 3961 would mean that Congress has thrown in the towel on its previous attempt to control Medicare spending. It will also mean that no rational person can believe that Congress will actually enforce any new Medicare spending cuts included in pending health care legislation. That, in turn, would mean that new health care legislation would actually result in further, massive increases in either Federal borrowing or taxes.”

Lastly, a key architect of Massachusetts’ reform plan and an economic adviser to many Dems, MIT’s Jonathan Gruber, offers his thoughts on the amount of cost control in the bills. It’s not necessarily a ringing endorsement (via an interview with Ezra Klein):

Here’s how I think about this: Do you know Pascal’s wager? Why not believe in God? I think of health-care reform similarly. We don’t know if we’ll really bend the cost curve. But if we do this and we don’t do anything, we still go bankrupt in 100 years. We don’t lose much. But if we do it and it works, then it’s a savior.

It also moves the conversation on cost control in a way that’s impossible without this bill. It does real things on cost control, and then it does real things to make cost control more politically viable. It lays the groundwork for doing more. To kill this bill for not doing enough on cost control would be like criticizing the Yankees for not winning the Super Bowl. They won the World Series! They did what they could do!

Friday, November 13th, 2009